Yoweri Museveni has been sworn in for a seventh term. The ceremony in Kampala was as predictable as the result. The Commonwealth, still nursing its post-suspension hangover, looks on. The question is not whether this is democratic. It is whether anyone in London, or elsewhere, still has the nerve to act.
Museveni, now in power for 39 years, knows the game. He won 58 per cent of the vote in January. His main opponent, Bobi Wine, says it was stolen. The Supreme Court, no stranger to regime loyalty, upheld the result. That is the pattern. The script is written. The actors play their parts.
Behind the scenes, Westminster is watching. The Foreign Office has the usual internal splits. The human rights lobby wants a strong statement. The trade desk wants to sell more armoured vehicles. The prime minister, distracted by domestic storms, has little bandwidth for African strongmen. This is the politics of the possible.
What does Museveni actually have? He has troops in Somalia, a good record on HIV/AIDS, and a growing economy. He also has a security apparatus that crushes dissent, a gerrymandered electoral system, and longevity that rivals Mugabe. Those are the facts. The Commonwealth, as an institution, balances principle and pragmatism. It chose pragmatism in January. Another shoe may drop.
The Chilcot-type inquiry for this is a whispered fear. No one wants to see a repeat of the 2010 Rwanda apology. But the mood in the Lobby is shifting. Backbenchers are restless. The All-Party Parliamentary Group on Uganda, once a fan club, now holds fractious meetings. The activists are louder. The question is whether the government will risk the trade relationship.
The real action is in the polling booths. Literally. The EU observer mission was not invited. The Commonwealth one was. Its report, due soon, will be the key text. Watch for its language. If it uses words like 'credible' and 'transparent', the game continues. If it talks about 'irregularities' and 'need for reform', the pressure builds.
Museveni knows the game. He will give a few interviews. He will promise to improve the economy. He will remind everyone of his anti-terrorist credentials. The British Ambassador will smile. The diplomatic niceties will hold. But in the dark corners of Whitehall, the conversation is already different. It is about what happens next. Not if. When.
The real test for the Commonwealth is not just this election. It is the next one. And the one after that. The democratic health of the union is measured in inches, not miles. For now, Museveni is in. The rest is optics.
